SPE Brazil Section has a pleasure to invite you to the lecture:

“Lecture Title: Mastering Uncertainty:
A Critical Skill for Petroleum Engineers in a Complex World"

Lecturer’s Name Jean-Paul Koninx

Lecturer’s Employer DecisionQraft

Abstract:

We live in uncertain times. Our industry is faced with more geopolitical and societal uncertainty than, potentially, ever before. As Petroleum Engineers we are used to dealing with uncertainty - whether in our measurements, our estimates, or our forecasts. It’s woven into the fabric of our profession. But how effectively do we actually manage it?

In this lecture we will explore how we, as Petroleum Engineers, manage uncertainty, and how well we do so – and where it is that we may fall short. Using several case studies and practical examples (ranging from appraisal drilling and subsurface modelling to probability estimating) we show how intuition may fool us in the face of uncertainty. And, we discuss best practices for uncertainty management that support better decision-making overall.

These best practices do not only cover technical skills; they also nudge us to look at perceptions and biases, and in fact at our behaviors when uncertainty is at play. There is a close connection between managing uncertainty well and making quality decisions on our projects. This is all very applicable to our day-to-day work; ultimately these practices also empower us to tackle broader industry uncertainties and societal challenges. Because, as Petroleum Engineers, we are not just problem solvers; we create value in an uncertain world.

Biography:

A Career in Petroleum Engineering and Decision Science

Jean-Paul Koninx brings a wealth of experience to the intersection of petroleum engineering, uncertainty management and decision-making. He joined Shell International in 1993 as Petroleum Engineer, and held technical and non-technical roles across the globe.

He served Shell as global Subject Matter Expert for Uncertainty Management and Value of Information, and Principal Technical Expert for (subsurface) Integrated Modeling.

In 2023 Jean-Paul founded DecisionQraft, a consultancy dedicated to empowering organizations with decision skills. He is accredited Lead Practitioner with the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP), Chartered Project Professional with the Association for Project Management (APM), and holds a PhD in Astrophysics.

An Extra 45 Minutes Can Provide a World of Knowledge

• For more information about our Distinguished Lecturer program, please visit the link: (https://www.spe.org/en/dl/)